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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: A "next" from the Peoria final (neilkaz)

OTB and with the match almost won, I really didn't like the stacked and awkward 12/3 and recalled a somewhat similar play I'd recently made in the USBGF OLM. My thinking was, that while it is hard to lose this game either way, I clear am better off if I play 12/6 7/4 if not hit and if hit unless hit by 66 or 61, I still am an enormous fav.

I just couldn't resist 12/6 7/4 and it gains me about 1% winning chances. Of course such a play is automatic if I have any value from a G win, but some players still can't make such plays in fear of what might happen rather than what could happen.

Note that if I am hit with something routine like a 62 I still retain almost 93% CPW per XGR++.

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 69 13 point match pip: 72 score: 11 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBDBBBB----A--------aach-:1:1:1:63:11:5:0:13:10
Blue to play 63

1.	Rollout1	12/6 7/4	eq: +0.8924
	Player: Opponent: 94.66% (G:22.54% B:1.00%) 5.34% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0005 (+0.8919...+0.8929) - [100.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 51 seconds
2.	Rollout1	12/3	eq: +0.8733 (-0.0191)
	Player: Opponent: 93.67% (G:12.46% B:0.44%) 6.33% (G:0.01% B:0.00%) Conf.: ±0.0006 (+0.8727...+0.8739) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
3.	XG Roller++	12/6 5/2	eq: +0.7711 (-0.1213)
	Player: Opponent: 88.66% (G:17.05% B:0.60%) 11.34% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 46746902 Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• A "next" from the Peoria final
  neilkaz -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 7:24 p.m.
  • A "next" from the Peoria final
    higonefive -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 8:24 p.m.
    • A "next" from the Peoria final
      Peter -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 9:18 p.m.
      • A "next" from the Peoria final
        higonefive -- Monday, 8 October 2012, at 9:37 p.m.
      • A "next" from the Peoria final
        christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 2:43 p.m.
        • A "next" from the Peoria final
          Peter -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 7:43 p.m.
  • OTB and RO
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 4:56 p.m.