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Play it

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 7:03 p.m.

In Response To: Play it (Daniel Murphy)

Tim posted a similar pay-now-or-pay-later problem over at rgb last week. So, informed by that, I'm inclined to pay now. The 65% of the time where blue is not hit work out pretty well.

That said, hitting gives white timing to hang around and hit a shot where Tim's position didn't (imagine having a 42 to play and you'll get the flavor of that position). If blue plays safe with 6/1 4/1 blue needs a 7, 9, 10,11 or 12 to clear. That's 19 shakes if I counted right.

So 65% to (almost) ice it with the loose hit vs a 50% chance to clear after surviving a 17% chance of the indirect shot. I think I like the 65%.

13/5*

Messages In This Thread

• Play it
  Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 7 October 2012, at 4:37 a.m.
  • Play it
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 7 October 2012, at 6:48 p.m.
  • Play it
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 7:03 p.m.
  • Play it
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 9 October 2012, at 7:19 p.m.
  • Play it - RO
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 10 October 2012, at 4:10 p.m.