OTB, I analyzed this much like Chuck did. Though I can see that 13/7*(2) might be too loose, I'm still surprised that after 24/21 9/6, advancing the anchor is a viable alternative to unstacking.
Sorry, I didn't roll out 13/7*/1*. That kind of double hit is rarely correct in the early game with a 33 that allows you to build structure instead. Even at gammon go I think 13/7* 6/3(2) is better than 13/7*/1*.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 160
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a----EaCA--dD--ab-dbA--A-:0:0:1:33:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 33 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 21/18 9/6 | eq: -0.037 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.11% (G:7.89% B:0.21%)
50.89% (G:9.18% B:0.31%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.043...-0.031)
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/21 9/3 6/3 | eq: -0.041 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.15% (G:10.94% B:0.32%)
51.85% (G:8.75% B:0.33%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.047...-0.035)
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/7* 6/3(2) | eq: -0.081 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.92% (G:16.81% B:1.03%)
52.08% (G:17.60% B:1.25%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.089...-0.073)
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/7*(2) | eq: -0.119 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.15% (G:15.10% B:0.93%)
52.85% (G:16.72% B:0.94%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.127...-0.111)
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/10(2) 9/6 | eq: -0.136 (-0.099) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.82% (G:10.27% B:0.32%)
54.18% (G:9.74% B:0.40%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.143...-0.129)
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes |
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| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/21 13/7* 9/6 | eq: -0.154 (-0.117) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.60% (G:11.85% B:0.42%)
54.40% (G:12.06% B:0.51%) | Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.161...-0.147)
Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes |
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| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3 ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01