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Stupid Bearoff

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 10 October 2012, at 8:02 p.m.

In Response To: Stupid Bearoff (Carlo Melzi)

It's going to take white 3 rolls to bear off unless she shakes doubles. Blue should be off in two rolls after this for the win. How to maximize teh chance that blue is off in 2?

If White had one less checker on the board I'd play 4/2 1/off(2) to maximize bearing off in one shake, but that's only a difference of one shake out of 36 (33 to be precise). I think spreading them around is probably better for the bearoff than stacking them up, so I'll go for 3/2(2) 1/off(2). That looks better than 3/off 1/off.

I'd guess that there's probably a .1 EMG difference between the top two plays. If only I could be sure which one is best.

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