The choice is between running 22/13 and pointing 9/3 6/3.
We're ahead in the race so at first glance that points towards running. However, White has 12 rolls that hit—equivalent to a direct shot—and if she hits then our only asset—our race lead—evaporates instantly, and we're left with nothing: no structure, no race lead, plus we're on the bar, causing White's otherwise not-very-useful ace point to gain in value. Even if White doesn't hit immediately, our lack of structure means that there's significant risk of leaving a blot next turn.
Making the 3pt cleans up our blot, and creates some structure that will be a permanent asset. White has no prime so we should have opportunities to run later. The main disadvantage of leaving our blot on the 22pt is that it might get attacked. However, White has only eight checkers in the zone, and after we make the 3pt, our board is actually slightly better than White's, so the risk of getting attacked is small.
I think the main take-away is not to underestimate the value of structure. If we already had some structure and no blot, with the same or better race lead, then running would probably be best. For example, in the position below, I feel confident that running is the best move by a significant margin.
| White | 154 |
|---|---|
| |
| Blue | 146 |
| GNUBg Id: g2fwASjgc8MDCA:cIm5AAAAAAAA XGID=-aa---E-CB--eD---b-d--A-b-:0:0:1:63:0:0:0:5:8 | |
