[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Epic dice whine

Posted By: higonefive
Date: Thursday, 11 October 2012, at 11:36 p.m.

In Response To: Epic dice whine (ah_clem)

I’ve just heard my second lesson, „Takes(Drops)“, this is a good subject to test. White is 3a4a. According to Phil, Leader has a basic takepoint of 21%. His gammon value is 0.4, Trailers is 1.0. This is an early blitz situation, with gammon windows 5-10% for the underdog and 20-33% for the dog. Because of the good structure and possible blocking and priming chances for the underdog, I will adjust to 10%. But also the gammon chances for the dog are high, and even if I overestimate ( I usually underestimate and butcher often a bunch of equity) I would like to say 35%. So I come to 21+25, getting a whopping 46% gammon adjusted takepoint for white. Wins overall are 60-40 in this type of games, but I would guess a little better, because the blot is higher in the board and better to attack. So my guess is white is winning roughly 38% percent. Cube vigorish can never lower the adjusted takepoint into take zone. Even if I give 1/7 according to Phil, I have 39,5%. So this must be a huge pass. Fortuna honors the brave and punishes the idiots. And according to Aristoteles, bravery is the knowledge what to fear and what to love.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.