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BGonline.org Forums
DQ: really bold play v. safe and boring play?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: DQ: really bold play v. safe and boring play? (leobueno)
Date: Friday, 12 October 2012, at 1:48 a.m.
This seems like a must hit scenario to me. One of the main issues is how the roll will play otherwise. However you cut it amongst the actual candidate plays you're going to be leaving shots, probably 4 of them. Now hitting only leaves 7 more shots than the non hitting play.
Another big factor in this position is the race. While after the roll you are only barely behind you certainly aren't winning. You can see the gigantic upside of hitting, you win 16 games immediately when he fans. There is no big upside with the non hitting play. No matter what happens, you just have to shake your dice and roll next turn.
The last big feature of the position I'd notice is not only my opponent's open 4pt which gives me some life after death when I am hit, but also that he has no spares on his 5pt or 6pt so that if I was to come in on that point I wouldn't be fearing an attack.
Stick
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