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Rollout - 21S.53?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 17 November 2007, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout - 21S.53? (Stick)

Betcha you thought I was going to complain about confidence intervals! No, there's something else of interest:

One of our rules of thumb is: don't put checkers out of play. In the other position (where White plays 24/21 13/11), if White proceeds to anchor on his started 21 point, Blue's 3 point is pretty much out of play for the rest of the game. And 14/36 of White's numbers, any 3 or 21 or 41, anchor on the 21 point or 20 point. Yet 8/3 6/3 is definitely better than splitting ... by a small amount ... according to the rollout.

But here where 8/3 6/3 makes a point in front of both of White's back checkers, 8/3 6/3 is only about as good as splitting while.

Apparently, while White's 24/21 split is good (for White) when he completes an advanced anchor (and he will more be able to do that more often than after playing 24/23), that 21 point checker is exposed to some blitzing dangers when he doesn't complete the anchor (and the 24/23 split, meanwhile, exposes White to very little danger, since a winning Blue game plan is very unlikely to include attacking Blue's 2 point).

And meanwhile meanwhile, playing 8/3 6/3 means forgoing playing 24/21, which has to be slightly good, seen in isolation, for the same reasons it was slightly good for White the roll before, and even better whenever White anchors. If White anchors on the 21 point, would you as Blue rather have a made 3 point and two back checkers on the 24 point, or have started your own 21 point?

The rollout results may seem counterintuitive, if one were to be, as Ian put it, "too worried about going beyond the anchor White has yet to make." Apparently, as David pointed out, the very few times -- after White cooperates by not anchoring -- that Blue can follow through with a great number like 2-2 4-4 4-2 1-1 make up for the many more times that Blue has made a relatively useless point behind an anchor.

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