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From a game I was watching on GG...redouble

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 16 October 2012, at 7:34 p.m.

In Response To: From a game I was watching on GG...redouble (Klaus Evers)

I'm not sure what you mean by the "race vs. contact ratio".

For GWC, if we assume a straight race, white's point of last take is 8 pips behind, she's 15 pips behind so at 2 pct per pip I get roughly 23 - 14 or about 9% GWC. White gets some GWC back due to her contact, but not very much - there are no immediate shot leaving rolls, blue should clear easily and even if blue is forced to leave a shot white still has to hit it. Maybe 11% GWC?

At most match scores, that would be a clear DP, but here if White passes it's 7a Crawford and if she takes she'll recube and play on for the match. The question then becomes is her MWC at 7a-Crawford more or less than the GWC here?

My MET (g11) says 7a-Crawford is ~9% to win the match, so this is right on the edge of the take. I think it's just over the take point, so I'll say take, and it's close enough to a pass that I'll say double.

Redouble/Take.

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