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Rollout

Posted By: Klaus Evers
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2012, at 4:55 a.m.

In Response To: From a game I was watching on GG...redouble (Klaus Evers)

From the fit of my pants I had the idea that white wins this kind of 10, 11, 12%, but this was only my estimation based on experience with holdinggames in general. I had no idea how to estimate it based on the real facts like race, number of rolls that don't save the straggler and so on. OTB action was D/P.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 87
7 point match
pip: 62
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBCBCA--A--a----bbAbbdb-:1:-1:-1:00:0:4:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 86,72% (G:0,71% B:0,00%) 86,86% (G:0,54% B:0,00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 13,28% (G:0,36% B:0,01%) 13,14% (G:0,26% B:0,01%)
Cubeless Equities +0,735 +1,186
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,859±0,003 (+0,856..+0,862)
Redouble/Take:+0,688 (-0,171)±0,005 (+0,683..+0,692)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,141)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 35,4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: GnuBG 11 point

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