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BGonline.org Forums
set of mistakes 4th part
Posted By: smcrtorchs In Response To: set of mistakes 4th part (konstantin)
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2012, at 9:32 a.m.
Koka would like to hit a second checker of Koka, however unless Koka rolls a 51 the odds are low. There are some weird strategies that blue could use, but as this position stands, the risk they curry is greater than the benefit. Therefore blue's goal should be to close out that checker that he managed to hit. 20/11 22/19 gives blue the best chance to cover the 5 point next turn. 24 out of 36 numbers if I counted correctly cover. But what happens if white enters and hits?
The other alternative that stands out for me is 22/16 20/14, which covers with 19 out of 36 numbers next turn, and gives blue a better chance in many variations in which white hits. It stands much better after mainly 56 but also 54 53 52. After 55 there is not really much difference. After 51 probably 20/11 22/19 would be better, as blue might not hit that second checker and he would like in that variation to be able to hit white's back checker as soon as possible. But all in all I would prefer the outfield coverage over the 5 extra hitting numbers. This is because my focus would be on the variations that might go wrong if white enters rather than the variations that can go right if white fans. There is always a tradeoff between outfield coverage and making prime/board points in the various stages of the containment game.
I should point out that my success rate is not very high in problems of this forum. Consider your self warned.
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