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difficult 5-5 to play

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Wednesday, 17 October 2012, at 2:59 p.m.

In Response To: difficult 5-5 to play (Robert Andersson)

Hi Robert,

after bearing off: 10off 5off(2): {D6,D5,D4,65,64,54} leave a shot next time, the risk is 9/36 x 11/36 = 99/1296 = 7,5%

after 10/5 6/1(3): {D6,D5,D4,65,64,54} leave a shot 25/36 of the time, risk = 5%

The 3 extra checkers off make a lot of difference, before being hit blue will have 4 or 5 checkers off. This gives blue a minimal winning chance of 16 to 22% after being hit. On average 19%.

The safer option gives him a minimal winning chance of 5 to 7% after being hit. On average 6%.

So bearing-off wins 92,5% + 7,5% x 19% = 94% Not bearing-off wins 95% + 5% x 6% = 95,3%

The difference in wins = 1,3%, so 2,6% extra gammons will do.

When I translate 17 versus 12 or 15 crossovers (a bit simply i confess) to 68 versus 48 or 60 pips, it leads to a gammonchance: 62% versus 85%.

This difference in gammons of 23% only comes in effect in a third of the cases (where white enters), but that is about 7% gammons, more than enough already for the bear-off to be right.

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