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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 18 October 2012, at 8:21 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

Normally at such scores when dealing with a recube it isn't that you dead cube take point is so low, though typically a bit lower than what what's normal, it's that your recube vig is so massive it drops your live cube take point to the basement. One easy way of seeing this in action is to figure out in this problem the 7a player's take point of an 8 cube. It comes in over 35%! That translates to massive recube vig on top of an already somewhat low take point.

The gammon values are also heavily distorted. They are near polar opposites for a lot of similar scores with the leader's gv dropping below half its normal match score value and the trailer's gammons going the other direction. These are the common sense things that need to be recognized en route to understanding such decisions.

I still think it's a must double situation. The window is hard to find but even if you miss it in such a scary position you will rack up a fair amount of drops. I do think it's a cube though because making the 5 or 6 prime (which is highly likely) followed by a regular response by your opponent is definitely market loss.

Whether or not to take is where the details come in to play. First we have the race which is in our favor. Unfortunately for us we have made the deep 2pt so that when our opp. is forced off the 20pt anchor our counter priming chances of attacking the checker(s) will not be as strong. If we could move our 2pt back to the 3pt the take isn't even a question in my mind.

The same could be said for already having the 4pt made via a spare on our 6pt. These seemingly minor enhancements in our position make a big overall difference. I'm not happy about either of them in the posted position but know either improvement would lead me to take easily. This makes me think we still have a take now. End of rambling story, RD/T

Stick

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