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Defend your cube action - elo diff.

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 18 October 2012, at 2:29 p.m.

In Response To: Defend your cube action - elo diff. (Mislav Kovacic)

Position 1 looks like a very clear double and drop no matter who is playing. Too many numbers hit a blot, and blue already has a 4-point board.

In position 2, I made a rough calculation of winning chances depending on how Blue rolls play - 4 groups of rolls (close out, pick and pass, hit loose, others) to which I assigned winning chances (cubeless). I got to about 25% cubeless winning chances, which indicates a clear take for White (about 1.0 cubeless, so let's say 0.8 with cube in play). I assume that Mochy would also need to take, despite of the difference in strength. Not sure though about that conclusion.

A clear redouble for Blue, both theoretically and OTB of course.

Position 3 looks TG to me against an equal opponent (not sure though, maybe D/P 64 leaves a shot and some other rolls are a bit awkward), against PR+6 just roll! PR+6 should take if doubled. Not sure how to quantify this.

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