When looking at Fish METs, one thing I've noticed is that, as a favorite, one should be passing gammonish positions (blitzes) VERY early against weaker opponents. Theoretically correct (and easy) takes become monster passes.
It's worth saying (and I'm not sure if you've considered this in already) that you have to factor in how the rest of the game will play out. Your opponent will play the rest of the game with a PR of 7 (as an example) and you will play the rest of the game with a PR of 4.
And my thinking is that in a blitz I might be an even bigger favorite. If the blitz is successful my PR is 0 (maybe my opponents PR won't be 7 in this situation, but he still gets to move and make mistakes) and in particular when the blitz fails the game can get complicated.
So I wouldn't take the Fish MET's verdict as gospel in these early game situations, but what the right amount of adjustment is I have no idea.
For instance should white be passing below? I really don't think so, but could be wrong.
For money:
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| ||||
| XGID=-----bE-C--AeD---a-e-b--AA:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 66.23% (G:24.71% B:1.39%) | 66.38% (G:26.49% B:1.31%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 33.77% (G:6.30% B:0.24%) | 33.62% (G:6.42% B:0.25%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.520 | +1.078 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.748 (-0.058) | ±0.020 (+0.728..+0.768) |
| Double/Take: | +0.805 | ±0.023 (+0.783..+0.828) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.195) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 59 minutes 23 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
Using Fish MET:
The score (after 0 games) is: +100 ELO 0, fish 0 (match to 11 points)
Move number 2: fish on roll, cube decision?
| +100 ELO | 166 |
|---|---|
| |
| fish | 151 |
Position ID: 4HPkAVCYT/ABAw Match ID: cAlgAQAAAAAA | |
• fish doubles
| Cube decision | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-ply cubeless equity | +0.613 | (Money: +0.575) | |
| 0.676 0.272 0.018 - 0.324 0.064 0.002 | |||
| Cubeful equities: | |||
| 1. | Double, pass | +1.000 | |
| 2. | Double, take | +1.202 | +0.202 |
| 3. | No double | +0.932 | -0.068 |
| Proper cube action: | Double, pass | ||