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Defend your cube action - elo diff.

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Friday, 19 October 2012, at 11:01 a.m.

In Response To: Defend your cube action - elo diff. (Michael Nielsen)

It's worth saying (and I'm not sure if you've considered this in already) that you have to factor in how the rest of the game will play out. Your opponent will play the rest of the game with a PR of 7 (as an example) and you will play the rest of the game with a PR of 4.

I agree with you that the Fish METs do not always tell the whole story. The complexity of a position certainly is a factor in these kinds of decisions.
I think my position number 1 and your example position are quite different in that regard.
In my position number 1 it doesn't take too much skill to closeout the guy on the bar should the dice allow it. Yes, weaker opponent will still make some mistakes but expecting to significantly outplay your fish opponent while being on the bar vs 4pt board seems a bit over-optimistic to me.

In your example position, your fish opponent only has a 2pt board and even if things go bad for you, closeout isn't likely to happen in the near future and fish will need to show much more skill to successfully play this position out. There surely is much more play left in this position than in position number 1.

Btw, I suggest you do not use 3ply for cube decisions when using Gnu, 2ply or 4ply will usually give more correct evaluation.
With the 4ply, the evaluation of your position is:

Cube analysis
4-ply cubeless equity +0.549 (Money: +0.512)
0.653 0.263 0.014 - 0.347 0.070 0.002
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass +1.000
2. Double, take +1.063 ( +0.063)
3. No double +0.884 ( -0.116)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

It turns out to be a much smaller pass than the 3ply suggests, but considering how much play is left in the position I don't think taking is an error here. At least not to a degree of a more typical blitz position where you are confronted with stronger board and where the skill difference won't show as much.

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