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Volunteer? Or conscientious objector?

Posted By: poseidon
Date: Thursday, 25 October 2012, at 9:41 a.m.

In Response To: Volunteer? Or conscientious objector? (Jeremy Bagai)

Did anybody notice that pay later gives more wins than run and still is second best play? Run is higher here due to the fact that it looses less gammons than pay later (2% against 5%). Perhaps this is because the safe play leaves a blot on the 4 point (as MCG wrote) which can later be collected by white. In addition white can take more risks going for the gammon when bearing off (after having hit blue) against a 3 point board than against a 4 point board.

In that case in DMP run is correct because of the zero gammon value for white.

Below I include the gnubgs rollouts ATS and DMP:

ATS:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, blue 0 (match to 5 points)

Move number 5: blue to play 52

gnubg81

'2X3X3X2X2X '1X '2O ' '

4O4O2O2O ' '1O ' ' ' '2X
blue63
Position ID: drcJBgDvbQQYAA Match ID: QYmqAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 15/13 15/10 -0.018
0.5570.0010.000-0.4430.0220.000 +0.088 -0.018
0.0000.0000.000-0.0000.0000.000 0.001 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 698874429 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 7/2 4/2 -0.056 ( -0.038)
0.5610.0050.000-0.4390.0530.002 +0.060 -0.056
0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0020.000 0.003 0.003
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 698874429 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 3 7/2 3/1 -0.081 ( -0.063)
0.553 0.002 0.000 - 0.447 0.044 0.001
4 2 15/10 7/5 -0.100 ( -0.082)
0.518 0.006 0.000 - 0.482 0.029 0.001
5 2 15/8 -0.126 ( -0.108)
0.509 0.003 0.000 - 0.491 0.025 0.001

DMP:

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, blue 0 (match to 2 points)

Move number 5: blue to play 52

gnubg81

'2X3X3X2X2X '1X '2O ' '

4O4O2O2O ' '1O ' ' ' '2X
blue63
Position ID: drcJBgDvbQQYAA Match ID: QYlKAAAAAAAA

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 7/2 4/2 +0.120
0.5600.0150.000-0.4400.0710.007 +0.120 +0.120
0.0010.0040.000-0.0010.0040.002 0.002 0.002
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 698848841 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
2 R 15/13 15/10 +0.103 ( -0.017)
0.5510.0050.000-0.4490.0480.001 +0.103 +0.103
0.0010.0020.000-0.0010.0040.000 0.001 0.001
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 698848841 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
3 3 7/2 3/1 +0.111 ( -0.009)
0.555 0.002 0.000 - 0.445 0.039 0.001
4 2 15/10 7/5 +0.036 ( -0.084)
0.518 0.007 0.000 - 0.482 0.030 0.001
5 2 15/8 +0.022 ( -0.098)
0.511 0.005 0.000 - 0.489 0.025 0.001

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