Black has one man on the bar. Half of his roll he has to use for coming in. He trails 168:151 after playing his move, his racing disadvantage is 11 points or a little more then 7%. He faces 11 men in the zone. Regardless, which point he will use to come in again, he will be under attack. If he chooses the 23 he is a little bit harder to attack, but a little bit better to prime. The blot on the 9 then is a little bit better to shoot then on 11. In the meantime, he has at some point to anchor up and get something going in the offense.
But if he is coming under the gun, will white have a double? How much will white loose his market, if he points and black will dance?
On the other side, how much is the gain, if white can’t blast away? Suddenly, the whole front position, the blot on 9 and the stripped midpoint included, get a brittle touch. Instead of slowly get strangled, you have doubled down.
I think, the pudel’s core is, that white can use the cube after the coming under the gun play more inefficiently then after coming in on 23, where he can use the cube for juicy double-in’s.
Now is the hour. In the eye of the taifun, there is silence.
BAR/21 13/11.