I was playing a 5 point match 2 days ago when that position came up and I was quite suprised that it was a blunder to make the 5 point here (I don't remember the actual score). After rolling out the position for money game I found it is not a blunder but it is a huge mistake. What I also remember is that I should split a couple of plays earlier (my first move) after white made his 3 point (so I suppose it was 53P, 32D, 33C, 61?).
Maybe this is one of the very rare cases where not making the 5 point against making another not "obviously better play" is so wrong.
        
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 147 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----b-E-C-AAeC-----db-b-B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/18 11/10 | eq: -0.503 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.56% (G:7.43% B:0.30%)
59.44% (G:25.53% B:0.64%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.509...-0.496) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 07 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/5 | eq: -0.574 (-0.072) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.62% (G:8.69% B:0.37%)
62.38% (G:21.82% B:1.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.580...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 13/7 11/10 | eq: -0.649 (-0.146) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.11% (G:7.22% B:0.27%)
63.89% (G:21.93% B:1.45%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 11/10 8/2 | eq: -0.717 (-0.215) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.38% (G:6.57% B:0.19%)
65.62% (G:22.17% B:1.34%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 13/7 8/7 | eq: -0.777 (-0.274) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.02% (G:6.64% B:0.25%)
65.98% (G:23.78% B:1.99%) | |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03