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I made a Beer(off) Quiz

Posted By: Michael Nielsen
Date: Tuesday, 30 October 2012, at 2:42 p.m.

In Response To: I made a Beer(off) Quiz (Robert Andersson)

I'll give it a go:

1. Yellow has 13 misses of 36 after that black wins 23 of 36. This gives us 299/1296, which is short of 25% (324/1296). Over the board I would be pretty sure that the recube value would be enough to make it a take.
But for the sake of the exercise, I'll try to do the math. Yellow wins 2 in 23/36 = 46 points. In the remaining 13 games yellow wins 4 in 13/36. So a little more than a third of 13 games is 4.5*4=18. For a total of 64 points.
Black wins 8.5*4=36 games so the total for black is -28 in a cross section of 36 games.

2. Yellow wins 19/36. Double/take.

3. Thanks to a recent discussion on DBgF's boards I learned a great rule for these positions (3 checkers vs. a 2-roll). If one or more checkers are on the same point you add a pip, but otherwise 10 pips is a pass 11-12 pips is redouble/take and 13 pips is a nodouble. So this should be double/take.

4. I'm guessing yellow has wastage of 6 for an EPC of 18. Blacks wastage is probably about 5.5 for an EPC of 17.5. Based on the EPC this is about a 2.5 roll position, so black can take if he's up by half a pip. I think this is a take, but not a big one.

5. Yellows wastage is only slightly worse here, so I'm not gonna adjust much and just call it 18. Blacks wastage is slightly worse than yellows in the previous position, so 6.5 for an EPC of 16.5. Yellow can double trailing by about 2.5 pips, so double/take.

6. Double/take

7. I know this position. From what I recall it's a small beaver.

8. Black wins 14% plus a little (no more .5%) from 11 not working for yellow. Then he wins if yellow rolls two aces (not 11) which is 100/1296 or about 8%. Not enough, double/pass.

9. Now it gets difficult. I'll choose to look at this like a 3-roll vs. 3-roll. Black is unlikely to miss, while yellow could miss with two aces in the next three rolls. Both sides has missing doublets on the first rolls, but these hurt black a lot more than they hurt yellow. Overall I think having that extra roll to cause a miss hurts yellow more, so I'm gonna say take.

10. Now yellow can't hardly miss (three aces if he starts with something small is all I see), and again the missing doublets hurt black more than yellow. Big pass.

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