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OLM We 10/31/12

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 8:08 a.m.

In Response To: OLM We 10/31/12 (Jason Lee)

*** 6/off 3/off 5/2 ***

After 6/off 3/off, 5/2 activates 22 in those variations that we need it. 4/1 caters for aces, but only makes a difference on a subsequent 21 (31 and 11 transpose, 41 51 and 61 leave us guaranteed to bear-off next turn in any case). If we play 5/2 and then roll 21, we have 11 21 31 32 as misses next, if we play 4/1 and then roll 21, then we miss with 11 21 31, so 2 misses less. So counting in 1296 (not completely accurate), we have a negative swing of 4/1296 for playing 5/2. Most of these do not count, because XGR will not be off quick enough in any case, so maybe we should count this as 2 in 1296

If we play 5/2, we turn a loss in a win if we roll 22 next, and XGR either rolls a non ace followed by high doubles (55 or 66), or high doubles followed by a non-ace. That is 2 * 1/36 * 2/36 * 25/36, which is a bit more than 2 in 1296.

So play 5/2, catering for 22.

OTB, I would just play dumb 4/1, but it looks like 5/2 is slightly better.

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