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SpeedGammon! What now?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Saturday, 3 November 2012, at 10:25 a.m.

In Response To: SpeedGammon! What now? (Keene)

Gammon value at the score (5a4a, Opp has a 4-cube) does not seem to be the reason why the trap play is wrong, since it's wrong (5th best) in an unlimited match, too.

Unlimited match, Blue to play 1-1

White	85
Blue	109
Position ID: 3vcAABhsuw0CIA Match ID: QokEABAAAAAE

Alert: doubtful move ( -0.002)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	13/11 6/4	+0.844290
			0.877532 0.133309 0.003257 - 0.122468 0.004194 0.000035 +0.887402 +0.844290 0.002035 0.003816 0.000495 - 0.002035 0.000508 0.000014 0.005545 0.006363
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			426 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	2	R	13/9	+0.842113 ( -0.002177)
			0.878419 0.128495 0.003367 - 0.121581 0.003910 0.000028 +0.884763 +0.842113 0.002081 0.003670 0.000559 - 0.002081 0.000294 0.000004 0.005350 0.006190
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			426 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10 6/5	+0.841568 ( -0.002721)
			0.877228 0.131664 0.003544 - 0.122772 0.004537 0.000046 +0.885082 +0.841568 0.002005 0.003726 0.000534 - 0.002005 0.000312 0.000011 0.005562 0.006412
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			425 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	13/12 6/3	+0.836892 ( -0.007398)
			0.876761 0.127792 0.003022 - 0.123239 0.003695 0.000021 +0.880620 +0.836892 0.001984 0.003796 0.000562 - 0.001984 0.000242 0.000004 0.005406 0.006250
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			425 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	13/12 7/5 7/6	+0.768626 ( -0.075664)
			0.816033 0.221795 0.008550 - 0.183967 0.026255 0.000282 +0.835875 +0.768626 0.001893 0.004049 0.001002 - 0.001893 0.001073 0.000072 0.005572 0.006829
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			424 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	8/5 8/7	+0.732785 ( -0.111505)
			0.804185 0.204703 0.007793 - 0.195815 0.023002 0.000507 +0.797358 +0.732785 0.002212 0.004743 0.001411 - 0.002212 0.001058 0.000231 0.006774 0.007653
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			325 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	7	R	7/5(2)	+0.718164 ( -0.126126)
			0.794816 0.207775 0.009019 - 0.205184 0.026719 0.000542 +0.779165 +0.718164 0.002261 0.005158 0.000814 - 0.002261 0.001335 0.000153 0.007268 0.008398
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	7/4 7/6	+0.716178 ( -0.128112)
			0.795087 0.205153 0.007952 - 0.204913 0.027321 0.000350 +0.775608 +0.716178 0.002069 0.004669 0.000942 - 0.002069 0.001270 0.000074 0.006441 0.008321
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			324 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 700378942 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• SpeedGammon! What now?
  Keene -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 5:33 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 5:38 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    neilkaz -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 6:34 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Keene -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 6:58 p.m.
    • SpeedGammon! What now?
      neilkaz -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 7:25 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Caryl Stephanson -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 10:00 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Kenny Nissen -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 10:13 p.m.
    • SpeedGammon! What now?
      neilkaz -- Friday, 2 November 2012, at 12:58 a.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Igor -- Thursday, 1 November 2012, at 11:33 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Stick -- Friday, 2 November 2012, at 2:19 p.m.
  • SpeedGammon! What now?
    Keene -- Friday, 2 November 2012, at 7:26 p.m.
    • SpeedGammon! What now?
      Caryl Stephanson -- Friday, 2 November 2012, at 10:08 p.m.
    • SpeedGammon! What now?
      Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 3 November 2012, at 10:25 a.m.
    • SpeedGammon! What now?
      Stick -- Saturday, 3 November 2012, at 3:10 p.m.