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4-ply RO — Tips on Trial Counts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 5 November 2012, at 9:34 p.m.

In Response To: 4-ply RO (Robert Andersson)

–

Thanks for the rollout. I’ll be adding it to my database.

As Daniel Murphy pointed out recently, there is nothing wrong with shorter rollouts as long as they are statistically significant. It has become a tradition, however, to roll to a complete multiple of 1296. This allows the bot to complete the dice rotation it uses for the first two moves of a rollout.

A minimum of 5k (5184 trials) is commonly used for early game positions. A shorter rollout can often tell you the best move, but will not be able to say by just how much. When you are interested to learn precisely what the difference is between the best move and its alternatives, you need more trials.

Often, the number of trials will be higher. Some multiples of 5184 are more commonly used than others: 10k, 15k, 20k, 31k, 41k, 46k and 62k, respectively, correspond to 10368, 15552, 20736, 31104, 41472, 46656 and 62208 trials. By convention, the number of trials is always rounded down when it is given in thousands.

Neil Kazaross caps his 4-ply rollouts at 46k (46656 trials). He will often stop earlier, however, at a multiple of 1296, when he feels he has reached a satisfactory level of confidence. For his 3-ply rollouts, Neil thinks nothing about running them out to over 100k (103680 trials)! I’ve seen him do this as a preliminary to running a 4-ply rollout, just to determine whether a 4-ply rollout is necessary. Don’t misunderstand. You should not feel an obligation to duplicate Neil’s methods. Neil has enough horsepower for his shenanigans.

Nack Ballard and David Rockwell have a very high standard for rollouts of openings and replies. Anything within 0.01 of best gets 62k. Plays within 0.02 get 31k. Within 0.03, 15k. And so on. For the third roll, and beyond, Nack and David are not so stringent.

Hope this helps.

Mike

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