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4-0 2/1* or no*

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 5 November 2012, at 11:02 p.m.

In Response To: 4-0 2/1* or no* (Keene)

This score is basically DMP so which play wins more? If 8/3 3/2, you're up 68-85. Give White an average 8-pip roll and it's you on roll 68-77. Kleinman's formula gives you about 78% cubeless chances but you've got a little more wastage, so maybe a little less than 78%. OTOH, there's the 1% D1-hit sequence in your favor, so let's keep it at 78%.

If you hit, 2/36 hit back. I think White wins about 80% of these so 1.6 wins there (if 80% seems too low, notice that 61 and 11 make you a clear favorite, the other aces leave the game about even, and White might not cover if you dance). Can White win 6.4 of the other 34 games? I dont' see how. You have 15 ways to close the board and very few blotting numbers.

I definately hit.

Messages In This Thread

• 4-0 2/1* or no*
  Keene -- Monday, 5 November 2012, at 10:29 p.m.
  • 4-0 2/1* or no*
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 5 November 2012, at 11:02 p.m.