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BGonline.org Forums
GNU = Donkey here
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: -3-4 cube action (poseidon)
Date: Wednesday, 7 November 2012, at 6:51 p.m.
Although I don't think XG's or any other bot's conclusion is likely correct either. Much of this problem at this specific score is due to the face that the bots' positional evaluation algorithms for are based upon money play and while their lookaheads will see some scored based effects they simply cannot anticipate how much the score based ramifications affect play here after White takes.
Lets discuss a rule of thumb that I have found to be quite reliable for the decision to turn the cube at similar scores and in similar positions that are quite gammonish for the leader. Here's my rule.
If, after taking and redoubling no matter what is rolled, the trailer can win as many or more matches than he can by passing, then it will very rarely be correct for the leader to cube.
So for this position, if White passes, his ME is a bit more than 33%. If he takes and recubes immediately, all subsequent play is at DMP since this becomes a match decisive game with the cube on 4. Looking at GNU's eval here, it says that White can win about 31% of all games, but this eval is based upon money play and much concern of losing a G or BG. At DMP there's no such concern, and White can play anything he wants to try to turn the game around and with no fear of a BG, stay forever on the ace pt if he gets semi-blitzed trying for a 2nd anchor. Therefore, at DMP White will win a couple percent more than 31%.
So since I now think that at DMP, White can win this position at least 33% of the time, I think it is an error for Blue to cube. Of course, I also think that the position is an extremely easy take since White's massive recube vig, will raise his effective chances far above what he'd have if he recubed no matter what since he can decide when to recube.
.. neilkaz ..
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