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BGonline.org Forums
How about a -3 -5 cube action?
Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov In Response To: How about a -3 -5 cube action? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Friday, 9 November 2012, at 2:01 a.m.
When I encounter these highly gammonish positions at these lopsided scores I try to estimate wins before doing anything else. This is mostly because win rates matter far more than gammon rates, but also because I am in general better at estimating win rates. Recubes will kill many gammons. Since the trailer should be sending cube back very aggressively, many gammons will not matter. Still, these cubes are very effective in practice against humans--a lot of them get dropped. I know, I used dropped them left and right myself, and still do.
Blue's position is well distributed and he will do something useful with every roll. White may find himself with two checkers on the bar against a four point board next roll. Still, she has a four point board herself which may come into play right away when she hits that blot, or on subsequent rolls when he tries to blitz. Recube take point ats is 1/3. Although gammon price on 4 cube is not high she will be killing his gammons by redoubling. This adds up to very aggressive redoubles ats. Usually tiny favorite + some gammons = easy redouble.
It is also good if you have something to compare this position to. I would try 52S-55a-F I am not sure which position is better, which may mean its close. This 4th roll blitz is an easy take and a small double ats. I see enough life in her position to take this cube. Immagine 62/61/dance/redouble. I would say double and take without much confidence in either.
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