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Rollout: How about a -3 -5 cube action?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 10 November 2012, at 12:57 a.m.

In Response To: How about a -3 -5 cube action? (Timothy Chow)

I thought that this was ND/T because of the gammons but apparently it's a massive error to hold the cube.

If I recall correctly, the bot says that at -3 -4 this is D/P. Didn't look at -3 -6...perhaps that's ND/T?





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 122
7 point match
pip: 119
score: 4

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aA-BB-CaB--BbB----cbbbA-b-:0:0:1:00:4:2:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 69.01% (G: 38.23% B: 1.35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.99% (G: 11.65% B: 0.93%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.90% (G: 38.68% B: 2.65%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.10% (G: 11.22% B: 1.33%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.735
Double:+1.293
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.730 (-0.174)
Double/Take:+0.904
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.096)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.015 (+0.715...+0.745)
Confidence Double: ± 0.026 (+0.878...+0.930)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 43 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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