Blonde (XG) redoubled me to 8 here. I seem to fall way behind in the score a lot more often when playing matches vs. XG than against humans, not sure why:) OTB I figured my takepoint vs. an even opponent was 4% which is about right. Do I win this often? Wasn't at all sure how to figure this one out. I started by estimating each sides EPC and came up with 51 to 67 (actual was 51 to 65.7). Then I asked myself how big a fav blonde would be with these same EPC's in a pips vs. pips race. Subtracting 7 from each makes the raw pip counts 44 to 60. Kleinman's formula gives the leader about 92% chances in such a race. However, given the same EPC's, the leader in a rolls vs. a (sort of) flat position is a bigger favorite than the leader in a pips vs. pips. How much better? OTB, I guessed about 5% which gives Black a pass even ATS. Looks like I found the right answer because I overestimated Black's EPC.
Anybody else have a better way of estimating winning chances in this kind of bearoff...Bob Koca, Chuck Bower, Mr. Majestyk?
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| XGID=-DGC---------------ccaccb-:2:1:1:00:8:3:0:13:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 96.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 96.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 3.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 3.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.937 | +1.087 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.980 (-0.020) | ±0.000 (+0.980..+0.981) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.045 (+0.045) | ±0.000 (+1.045..+1.045) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 10.3 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2