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Cube sent - extreme effect on winning chances - why?

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 11 November 2012, at 9:08 p.m.

In Response To: Cube sent - extreme effect on winning chances - why? (Tenland)

In your rollout, after double/take, the games are long, and badly played. That explains the 68% wins and 15% gammon losses; after no double, despite the bad play, I would think that it's quite likely that Blue very often reaches whatever position XG evaluates as sufficient for a double/pass. It then doubles and passes, and estimates cubeless wins at >80% and gammon losses at <7%. I'd guess XG doesn't reach an erroneous double/take too often because if it did, the no double equity for the rollout of the original position would be a lot lower than it is. The original position is already a big pass, though. Gnubg 2-ply rolls out double/take to about 83% wins, about 5% gammon losses and +1.200 cubeful equity, and I don't think that result indicates very good play.

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