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Rollout: I had no clue what was going on here

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 16 November 2012, at 1:32 a.m.

In Response To: I had no clue what was going on here (Timothy Chow)

Had the score been 5a7a I would have been fairly confident that this was ND/T. I typically play 7pt matches for practice so I encounter the 5a7a score quite often. But I don't have much practice with 5a6a, and I wasn't sure how much to fear the potential recube. I held the cube here, and the rollout slaps me with a whopper.





White is eXtremeGammon

score: 1
pip: 97
7 point match
pip: 122
score: 2

Blue is Timothy Chow
XGID=a-ABBBBBA---a-A----cdcc-B-:1:1:1:00:2:1:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 73.24% (G: 20.68% B: 0.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.76% (G: 8.37% B: 0.84%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.56% (G: 19.19% B: 1.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.44% (G: 8.52% B: 1.48%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.611
Redouble:+1.102
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.791 (-0.120)
Redouble/Take:+0.911
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.089)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
First 4 moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.009 (+0.782...+0.800)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.014 (+0.896...+0.925)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 56 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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