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RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 2:28 a.m.

In Response To: Blonde to play 51 (John O'Hagan)

Everybody saw that hitting was the wrong play ATS. It's clearly correct at a normal score (since it gives you 8% more wins vs. 5% more net gammon losses) but not when the 4-cube gammon values favor the trailer by 77% to 13%. 5/4 is the best ace.

is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 96
13 point match
pip: 107
score: 8

is Player 1
XGID=--BCABCa----bBa---Bbbbbba-:2:1:1:51:8:4:0:13:10
to play 51

1.Rollout16/1 5/4eq: -0.279
Player:
Opponent:		42.63% (G:4.97% B:0.12%)
57.37% (G:10.66% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.284...-0.275) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout16/1 2/1eq: -0.303 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		41.86% (G:4.94% B:0.21%)
58.14% (G:11.13% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.307...-0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout16/1 3/2eq: -0.321 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		42.25% (G:4.70% B:0.10%)
57.75% (G:12.85% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.326...-0.317) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout16/1 4/3eq: -0.366 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		38.41% (G:3.44% B:0.05%)
61.59% (G:10.51% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.370...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 50 seconds
5.Rollout113/7* eq: -0.410 (-0.131)
Player:
Opponent:		50.95% (G:20.54% B:1.15%)
49.05% (G:31.55% B:1.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.415...-0.405) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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