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Why?

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 2:43 a.m.

In Response To: Why? (David Rennie)

My rule of thumb ATS is that the trailer's non-last roll 2-cube takepoint is around 23% minus 150% of his gammon chances. Not many g losses for Blue here but there are 4 numbers that cause you to leave a direct shot plus maybe some future flies as well. Probably amounts to at least 2% or so gammons. This lowers the takepoint to at most 20%.

ATS it's best to wait until you are real close to the oppt's takepoint before cubing. You might not ever make your 5-point which will make clearing your 7 and 8-points safely a tricky proposition. Take a roll and reassess next turn. If you roll a good number that makes your 5-point and White rolls some average number, you may have lost your market - but probably not by much.

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