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Here's a big lead holding game cube from Vegas that wasn't a blunder

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Wednesday, 21 November 2012, at 7:05 p.m.

In Response To: 7a-3a recube action? (Stick)

A top 20 Giant cubed me here and I estimated that I could win 18.5 to 19% cubeless with 1% G's. With my GV being a tad over 2, this meant take. As the game played out, he couldn't get off the 10 pt and finally blotted with a 55 and was hit and I had great G chances as he not only had my 10 pt, he had a blot on his 4 pt, but alas he failed to roll a 1 for six turns until boxes forced me to close him out and couldn't G him.

A small window here for a holding game double/take, especially when the take is based upon winning a very lucky, but extremely valuable G.





White is Player 2

score: 7
pip: 116
15 point match
pip: 95
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--ABBbCB-CB-a----bacbaba--:0:0:1:D:13:7:0:15:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.159% (G:1.751% B:0.005%) 80.718% (G:3.256% B:0.011%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.841% (G:0.655% B:0.011%) 19.282% (G:0.643% B:0.029%)
Cubeless Equities +0.6230 +1.6190
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.9186 (-0.0664)±0.0045 (+0.9141..+0.9231)
Double/Take:+0.9850±0.0080 (+0.9770..+0.9930)
Double/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.0150)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46746902
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 07 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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