I have a disease that I've been trying to conquer where I somehow convince myself that I have a take in positions which subsequently turn out to be blunders of a magnitude of .400 and up. You put that little cube with the pretty 2 on it out on the board and it's like a God damn shot glass of whiskey to an alcoholic. I thought long and hard on this one (look at all those checkers stacked on his 2-point and the gap on the 3-point in addition to a takepoint that is lower than normal) before reluctantly passing (look at where my spares are and his gammons are inflated in value). I'm not sure if y'all thought the answer was obvious or just not worth contemplating but I had to roll it out to almost 83000 games to get 100% confidence that it is a very borderline take.
And of course you are correct, Timothy, that it's a bigger take for money. The takepoint is higher but the gammons are worth less.
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| XGID=-CCB-BBa----a-----Acbb-fB-:0:0:-1:00:6:4:0:9:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 73.50% (G:12.29% B:0.44%) | 73.46% (G:12.11% B:0.45%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 26.50% (G:1.73% B:0.03%) | 26.54% (G:1.56% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.557 | +1.114 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.824 (-0.170) | ±0.001 (+0.823..+0.825) |
| Double/Take: | +0.994 | ±0.001 (+0.993..+0.996) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.006) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 82944 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 9 hours 27 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2