–
After this play, White will be on roll, trailing by 6 pips. A 4-pip deficit would be a tie, so Blue will have a modest lead in the race. When you factor in wastage, Blue’s lead is even larger. Keith-count adjustments (assuming that White can fill the gap on his 5pt later) add 6 pips to White’s count. Given that Blue will not be volunteering a shot, he has only two possible plays. Lifting the 8pt produces the best racing position for Blue, but leaves two inside blots. Under those circumstances White would find it easy to run with one checker, and leave the other behind. Running, of course, is just what White would like to do. It is the only way to retain his standing in the race. Clearing the bar point is Blue’s other option. That would give him a cover for the blot on his 1pt, but would also stack a fourth checker on the 3pt. The good news is that there would be no inside blots. Is that enough to stop White from running? I don’t think so. That being the case, I think Blue should look after his own race, and clear the 8pt. With two inside blots, Blue may not want to hit next turn, but in case White decides to leave a blot on the 5pt, Blue will often be ready to attack on the turn after. Furthermore, by clearing his 8pt, Blue avoids the nasty gap that results when he picks up the 7pt. Mike | ||||||||||||
