You beat me to it. I was busy yesterday and didn't have time to post to BGO. But anyway, here are some related positions that I prepared. My play of 7/3 7/1 does inhibit White from running, as I thought it would, but it seems that getting a better distribution takes precedence; it boosts our equity considerably when White rolls small. Shift a spare from the 3pt to the 4pt and the decision is close.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 82 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AACCbCB---B------ab-bbcc-:1:-1:-1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 20/16 20/15 | eq: -0.161 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 37.14% (G:3.98% B:0.08%)
62.86% (G:4.15% B:0.08%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 20/11 | eq: -0.198 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.77% (G:3.45% B:0.04%)
65.23% (G:2.54% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 20/15 7/3 | eq: -0.259 (-0.098) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.34% (G:4.65% B:0.10%)
66.66% (G:6.54% B:0.13%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 20/16 7/2 | eq: -0.305 (-0.145) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.88% (G:3.64% B:0.12%)
68.12% (G:7.39% B:0.16%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 7/3 6/1 | eq: -0.348 (-0.188) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.26% (G:0.53% B:0.00%)
70.74% (G:2.96% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 6. | XG Roller+ | 6/2 6/1 | eq: -0.366 (-0.205) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.52% (G:0.43% B:0.00%)
71.48% (G:3.30% B:0.06%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 82 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B-DBbC-B--B------ab-bbcc-:1:-1:-1:54:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 54 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 7/3 6/1 | eq: -0.242 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.52% (G:0.85% B:0.01%)
66.48% (G:2.63% B:0.06%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 6/2 6/1 | eq: -0.246 (-0.004) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.13% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
66.87% (G:2.27% B:0.04%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller+ | 7/2 6/2 | eq: -0.259 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.77% (G:0.83% B:0.01%)
67.23% (G:2.71% B:0.05%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller+ | 20/11 | eq: -0.342 (-0.101) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.39% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
70.61% (G:2.15% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller+ | 20/16 20/15 | eq: -0.354 (-0.113) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.69% (G:0.38% B:0.01%)
70.31% (G:4.38% B:0.07%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 82 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-AACCbCB---B------ab-bbcc-:1:-1:-1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 12 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 7/5 6/5 | eq: -0.326 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.63% (G:0.79% B:0.01%)
70.37% (G:1.65% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 7/5 2/1 | eq: -0.339 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.01% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
70.99% (G:1.66% B:0.02%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 82 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 78
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-B-DBbC-B--B------ab-bbcc-:1:-1:-1:12:0:0:3:0:10 |
| White to play 12 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 7/5 6/5 | eq: -0.212 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 34.37% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
65.63% (G:1.53% B:0.02%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 7/4 | eq: -0.225 (-0.013) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.65% (G:0.77% B:0.01%)
66.35% (G:1.35% B:0.02%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 82 | Money session
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 89
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-A-BCbCBB--B------ab-bbcc-:1:-1:1:64:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 64 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 7/3 7/1 | eq: +0.204 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.24% (G:2.58% B:0.04%)
34.76% (G:0.66% B:0.01%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 8/4 8/2 | eq: +0.194 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.56% (G:3.67% B:0.08%)
35.44% (G:2.03% B:0.04%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21