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Rollout: This reminded me of Michael's pointless double

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 8 December 2012, at 12:24 a.m.

In Response To: This reminded me of Michael's pointless double (Timothy Chow)

Playing against XG, I thought this was a close pass for money and a take ATS, but I may have been too optimistic.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 176
7 point match
pip: 127
score: 2

Blue is Player 2
XGID=aaa-AAEAC---dC---cAd-a----:0:0:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 70.34% (G: 36.23% B: 3.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.66% (G: 5.65% B: 0.44%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.06% (G: 38.14% B: 3.93%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.94% (G: 5.97% B: 0.62%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.724
Double:+1.497
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.891 (-0.109)
Double/Take:+1.076 (+0.076)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
2045 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.021 (+0.870...+0.912)
Confidence Double: ± 0.030 (+1.047...+1.106)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 12 hours 38 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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