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ROLLOUT

Posted By: mochy
Date: Saturday, 8 December 2012, at 9:10 a.m.

In Response To: ROLLOUT (Mr Majestyk)

I wouldn't double but computer won't be screwed up in this kind of position.

You can double with minimum 12% racing lead if you have a normal distribution.(Having a spare on 8p, filling the gap in your home board) Here your distribution is much worse but your racing lead is way bigger. So maybe it is canceled out.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 114
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----ACDbD---bC---c-ccb----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.77% (G:1.48% B:0.02%) 69.77% (G:1.33% B:0.01%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.23% (G:1.19% B:0.01%) 30.23% (G:1.16% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.398 +0.794
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.580 (-0.007)
Double/Take:+0.587
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.413)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03

This is a boarderline (for normal distribution) cube. However your position is more volatile as it has bigger racing lead (so that high doublet swings the equity a lot). That is why it is bigger double in my opinion.

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