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Explain Jacoby paradox

Posted By: David Startin
Date: Saturday, 8 December 2012, at 2:36 p.m.

In Response To: Explain Jacoby paradox (leobueno)

In position 1 if you double you win 19 and lose 17 times out of 36. Your equity is 4*(2/36) or 0.22. If you don't double, you win 59.35% of the time. Your equity is 2* (0.5935-.4065), which is 0.374.

In position 2 if you double you win 19 and lose 17 times out of 36. Your equity is 4*(2/36) or 0.22. If you don't double, you win 55.4% of the time. Your equity is 2* (0.554-.446), which is 0.216.

The reason you don't double 1 and do double 2 is because your opponent misses on 5 rolls rather than 2.

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