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OLM Su 12/09/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 10 December 2012, at 9:36 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 12/09/12 (Jason Lee)

Vote: 17/13*/12.

66 won't hit us on the 13 point. But if we leave the checker on the 13 point, 9 numbers blot in our home board next roll: 62 52 43 53 44. If we move it to the 12 point, only 5 numbers blot next roll: 61 43 44.

66 is a 1/36 = 2.77% chance. 4 extra home board blotting numbers and a hit = 4*11/1296 = 3.34%.

Additionally from the 13 point only 12 numbers clear our checker to the 4 point or beyond: 33 63 44 54 64 55 65 66, but 17 numbers do that from the 12 point: 22 62 33 35 36 44 45 46 55 56 66.

(Numbers are approximate since it they assume White hasn't made his 6 or 5 point.)

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