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OLM Sat. Nov. 24th

Posted By: dave
Date: Saturday, 24 November 2007, at 2:39 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Sat. Nov. 24th (Stick)

15/8.

Playing safe 8/5 7/3 has to be a whopper. Moving a checker from the 22pt even worse. So it comes down to 14/7 or 15/8. OTB I would play 14/7 as making the 5pt prime just jumps out. But this deserves more consideration. Playing either way gives Stick the same chances to hit us twice. If we play 14/7 then this will make it a little easier to finish up our prime if we don't get hit. But then what about his jokers? If we play 14/7 his 66 hits and gets that checker to safety. If we play 15/8 and he rolls 55, he hits but has to leave a blot (but can move a checker in from the 16pt) which we can hit if we roll 41 or 43. Putting all this together and I really don't know and I think it's close but somehow 15/8 seems more exciting.

For a while I had thought that if we played 15/8 this would kill his 6s perhaps forcing him to crash his board if he rolled anything except a 66 but it turns out his board has enough spares to handle that. However, if you strip his points (16 and 19) then I would imagine playing 15/8 would be the clear favorite as his board would crash with 64 63 or 62.

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