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OLM Su 12/09/12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Monday, 10 December 2012, at 9:41 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 12/09/12 (Chuck Bower)

Another advantage to hitting a 3rd checker is that even when opp rolls 65 he'll have one remaining on the bar (so easier for us to get the last checker home). This doesn't seem like a big factor, though.

17/12 followed by 65 followed by an indirect hit from the bar is worth about 2/36 * 13/36 * (20-8)/36 = 0.7% more hits. A bigger factor is that after 17/13*/12, Opp would still have two on the bar on 16/36 of his numbers (64 63 62 61 54 53 52 51), and then would get no indirect hits from the bar after 13/36 of our numbers (11 21 31 41 51 32 42). After 17/12, that's worth about 16/36 * 13/36 * 7/36 = 3% more hits.

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