At DMP, where we don't care to lose a gammon, the roll-out result shows that the "pay now and pay later" moves are virtually tied.
        
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120 | | 1 point match | pip: 100
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBCCc-----B---bbbbbbA--:0:0:1:52:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/3 | eq: -0.863 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 6.86% (G:0.28% B:0.01%)
93.14% (G:20.73% B:1.64%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.868...-0.858)
Duration: 35 minutes 58 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/11 6/1 | eq: -0.865 (-0.002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 6.74% (G:0.15% B:0.12%)
93.26% (G:22.13% B:1.46%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.869...-0.861)
Duration: 34 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/8 | eq: -0.875 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 6.26% (G:0.16% B:0.08%)
93.74% (G:18.28% B:1.14%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.879...-0.871)
Duration: 44 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -0.882 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 5.91% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
94.09% (G:13.54% B:0.69%) | Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.886...-0.878)
Duration: 46 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
At the score the opponent should hit us, if we volunteer a shot now.
| | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 120 | | 13 point match | pip: 93
score: 9
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBCDc-----A---bbbbbbA--:0:0:-1:26:9:6:0:13:10 |
| White to play 26 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/12* 12/10 | eq: +1.086 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 87.91% (G:17.53% B:0.52%)
12.09% (G:0.38% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.005 (+1.081...+1.091)
Duration: 27 minutes 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/10 | eq: +1.051 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 91.69% (G:9.80% B:0.32%)
8.31% (G:0.37% B:0.01%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (+1.045...+1.057)
Duration: 55 minutes 15 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
At DMP it is a big mistake for the opponent to hit us, if we volunteer a shot.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 120 | | 1 point match | pip: 93
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBCDc-----A---bbbbbbA--:0:0:-1:26:0:0:0:1:10 |
| White to play 26 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 18/10 | eq: +0.891 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 94.53% (G:10.28% B:0.22%)
5.47% (G:0.21% B:0.01%) | Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.882...+0.900)
Duration: 4 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout2 | 18/12* 12/10 | eq: +0.785 (-0.106) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 89.23% (G:15.04% B:0.40%)
10.77% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) | Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.775...+0.795)
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds |
|
| |
1 146 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
2 145 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
So why should volunteering be correct at the score??
| | White is Player 2
score: 6
pip: 120 | | 13 point match | pip: 100
score: 9
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BBBCCc-----B---bbbbbbA--:0:0:1:52:9:6:0:13:10 |
| Blue to play 52 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -1.082 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 10.15% (G:0.43% B:0.01%)
89.85% (G:15.16% B:0.41%) | Conf: ± 0.006 (-1.088...-1.076)
Duration: 31 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 5/3 | eq: -1.104 (-0.022) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 8.48% (G:0.48% B:0.02%)
91.52% (G:16.04% B:0.53%) | Conf: ± 0.008 (-1.112...-1.096)
Duration: 31 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 61912136
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
I think that the roll-out results for positions 1 and 4 are not consistent.
/tdtd style= 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. score: 0../Images/p_dn_b_2.gif