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Rollouts and After-Thoughts

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Sunday, 16 December 2012, at 4:09 a.m.

In Response To: Rollouts and After-Thoughts (Timothy Chow)

By saying, that "the RO-results for positions 1 and 4 are not consistent", I by no means meant, that the RO-result for the position at DMP is right and the result for the position 4 is wrong.
If it is true, that at DMP the opponent shouldn't hit, why don't we force him to hit by playing 13-11 6-1, in DMP position!?
Basically we have to premises:
1. Opponent should hit ATS (not really sure)
2. Opponent should not hit at DMP (there is strong evidence for this)
I think these premises don't explain both RO-results.
Either, one of the RO-results is wrong or (one of) the 2 premises.

By the way, aren't you surprised by this:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 120 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 93 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBCDc-----A---bbbbbbA--:1:1:-1:62:0:0:3:0:10
White to play 62

1.	Rollout1	18/10	eq: +0.939
	Player: Opponent: 93.59% (G:8.63% B:0.27%) 6.41% (G:0.19% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.006 (+0.933...+0.945) Duration: 50 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/12* 12/10	eq: +0.910 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 89.14% (G:16.35% B:0.42%) 10.86% (G:0.31% B:0.01%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.902...+0.918) Duration: 32 minutes 42 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/16 18/12*	eq: +0.901 (-0.038)
	Player: Opponent: 88.99% (G:15.76% B:0.45%) 11.01% (G:0.30% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.894...+0.908) Duration: 20 minutes 14 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 61912136 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

../Images/o_b_0.gifpadding:0,0,0,0;margin:0,0,0,0;padding:0;margin:0;width:75px

Messages In This Thread

• defending against the free roll
  rambiz -- Thursday, 13 December 2012, at 3:14 a.m.
  • defending against the free roll
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 13 December 2012, at 6:49 p.m.
    • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
      rambiz -- Saturday, 15 December 2012, at 4:33 p.m.
      • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 15 December 2012, at 11:05 p.m.
        • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
          rambiz -- Sunday, 16 December 2012, at 4:09 a.m.
          • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
            Bob Koca -- Sunday, 16 December 2012, at 6:49 p.m.
          • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
            Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 16 December 2012, at 10:56 p.m.
            • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
              rambiz -- Monday, 17 December 2012, at 9:36 p.m.
              • Stick, Delete my Post above please
                rambiz -- Monday, 17 December 2012, at 9:42 p.m.
            • Rollouts and After-Thoughts
              Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 17 December 2012, at 11:49 p.m.