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| XGID=aa-BBBC---aA--A-----AAAbA-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
2ply, 3ply red cube - just to see how far off it is:
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76,32% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 76,04% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23,68% (G:2,23% B:0,32%) | 23,96% (G:2,41% B:0,31%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,501 | +0,987 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,859 | ±0,007 (+0,851..+0,866) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,838 (-0,021) | ±0,009 (+0,829..+0,846) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,141) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11,3% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 00 second | ||
3ply, 3ply - still no double, but equity is higher:
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77,44% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 77,51% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22,56% (G:2,13% B:0,33%) | 22,49% (G:2,24% B:0,32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,524 | +1,049 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,916 | ±0,008 (+0,908..+0,923) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,911 (-0,005) | ±0,009 (+0,902..+0,920) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,084) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5,3% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 79,5% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 21 minutes 09 seconds | ||
3ply, 3ply, with huge move interval - not much difference:
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77,56% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 77,66% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22,44% (G:2,13% B:0,31%) | 22,34% (G:2,21% B:0,31%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,527 | +1,056 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,923 | ±0,008 (+0,915..+0,931) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,920 (-0,003) | ±0,009 (+0,910..+0,929) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,077) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4,0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply Search interval: Huge | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 70,5% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 36 minutes 11 seconds | ||
3ply, XGR - not a big difference again:
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78,67% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 77,49% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21,33% (G:2,08% B:0,37%) | 22,51% (G:2,25% B:0,32%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,549 | +1,048 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,917 | ±0,006 (+0,911..+0,923) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,910 (-0,007) | ±0,009 (+0,901..+0,919) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,083) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6,8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 87,8% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 20 minutes 27 seconds | ||
4ply, XGR - first time it says it is correct to double:
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 79,19% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 78,96% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 20,81% (G:2,12% B:0,39%) | 21,04% (G:2,26% B:0,36%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,559 | +1,106 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,933 (-0,047) | ±0,007 (+0,926..+0,940) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,980 | ±0,010 (+0,969..+0,990) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,020) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Duration: 1 hour 27 minutes | ||
4ply, XGR - pass?
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 79,41% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) | 79,55% (G:0,00% B:0,00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 20,59% (G:2,15% B:0,41%) | 20,45% (G:2,45% B:0,40%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0,563 | +1,125 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0,938 (-0,061) | ±0,007 (+0,931..+0,945) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0,999 | ±0,011 (+0,987..+1,010) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1,000 (+0,001) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Huge | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100,0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 58,2% | |
| Duration: 2 hours 09 minutes | ||
If XG on high settings cannot produce a pass here, does it mean that White should take this against human opponent, assuming human-Blue will make several errors in the future?