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Can XG be right? (Analysis shown)

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 19 December 2012, at 2:55 p.m.

In Response To: Can XG be right? (Analysis shown) (joe freedman)


And here's the checker play rollout. (Sorry about the formatting, I rolled it out yesterday and only saved a text version.)

Note that the blitzing play wins more games, more gammons, and more backgammons while losing fewer gammons. Usually, that's enough to make it come out on top of the rollout, but not here. Again, I think the reason is that blue always has a cash after the safe play, but sometimes plays on and loses when blitzing. 

 

 1. Rollout¹    9/4(2) 6/1(2)                eq:+0.998 

      Player:   80.86% (G:1.87% B:0.02%) 

      Opponent: 19.14% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) 

      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.997..+1.000) - [100.0%] 

      Duration: 21.1 seconds 

 

    2. Rollout¹    8/3(2) 7/2*(2)               eq:+0.945 (-0.053) 

      Player:   89.90% (G:11.27% B:0.10%) 

      Opponent: 10.10% (G:0.29% B:0.01%) 

      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.941..+0.949) - [0.0%] 

      Duration: 7 minutes 27 seconds 

 

    3. 4-ply       9/4(2) 8/3(2)                eq:+0.991 (-0.007) 

      Player:   85.89% (G:2.95% B:0.04%) 

      Opponent: 14.11% (G:0.38% B:0.01%) 

 

    4. 4-ply       8/3(2) 6/1(2)                eq:+0.987 (-0.011) 

      Player:   85.10% (G:2.09% B:0.02%) 

      Opponent: 14.90% (G:0.40% B:0.01%) 

 

¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. 

   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 

 

 

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2



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