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recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 20 December 2012, at 6:30 p.m.

In Response To: recent American Football situation -- OT -- OtB and RO (Chuck Bower)

"Even without considering the 2xTD outlier, by symmetry going for 2 after scoring a TD (before a FG) is wrong as well. As you emphasize, the 2xTD outlier scenario makes it even more wrong. "

I did not at all emphasize that the 2XTD outlier makes it even more wrong and I don't understand your symmetry argument. Actually I think it is the case that if the percentage of making the 2PAT is just barely less than 50 that it is right to go for the 2 pointer after an initial TD but not after a FG, then TD.

Suppose that the 2 PAT is actually 50% making it a breakeven choice after Fg+TD. So let's suppose it is gone for after FG+TD and also after TD. If it is made then the cases FG+TD and TD + FG do equally well. But if it is missed then the case of FG + TD does WORSE than TD + FG because there would not actually be a wasted FG and instead there would be a long pass TD attempt.

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