As I mentioned before, a longer rollout would be nice here. Thanks, ah_clem, for agreeing to do one.
W does lose the most gammons but under the circumstances, it seems that Blue's best chance of winning is to try to prime.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 137 | Money session
Jacoby | pip: 163
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aa---E-C--AbD---d-e-A--bA:0:0:1:21:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 6/5 | eq: -0.385 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.60% (G:10.65% B:0.53%)
56.40% (G:28.50% B:1.58%) | Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.402...-0.368)
Duration: 5 hours 15 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 11/10 | eq: -0.411 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.75% (G:9.91% B:0.48%)
58.25% (G:24.84% B:0.95%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.427...-0.395)
Duration: 4 hours 58 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 21/20 | eq: -0.426 (-0.041) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.47% (G:9.68% B:0.45%)
58.53% (G:24.51% B:0.87%) | Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.441...-0.411)
Duration: 4 hours 28 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 | eq: -0.454 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.10% (G:9.52% B:0.44%)
58.90% (G:25.88% B:0.90%) | Conf: ± 0.016 (-0.470...-0.438)
Duration: 4 hours 22 minutes |
|
| |
1 2332 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21