[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Crawford Rule Brainteaser

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Friday, 21 December 2012, at 5:49 a.m.

In Response To: Crawford Rule Brainteaser (AP)

If my opponent gets to Crawford before I do, my winning chances are 18 percent better if there is no Crawford Rule. So in that case, it would be worth $18.00. However, I might get to Crawford first, and it’s possible that neither of us will get to Crawford. If I win a point the next game and it is 2away/2away, neither of us will get to Crawford, and if I win 2 points the next game, he will not get to Crawford, I will, in which case I have lost 18% by the elimination of the rule. His odds of getting to Crawford are about 25 percent higher (just a guess) than mine, so that means for that value difference, I should only pay him about $4.50. Then there are the times that neither of us get to Crawford, which I believe happens about 40 percent of the time, so 60 percent of the $4.50 is $2.70.

Now, because I feel that $2.70 is a fair offer, that means I don’t really gain anything by paying $2.70 and there is no point in paying the fair price…I may as well not do anything. However, I would be willing to pay $2.00 as that would gain me something.

However, since I have done this exercise I now see that I have less than a dollar or two to gain even if my opponent is willing to make a bad deal, I would conclude that doing this calculation and getting into a negotiation is a pretty bad use of my brainpower and time…brainpower that could be better used to concentrate on winning the match, and time that could be used to gloat after the match if I win. So I would not bother. But it was a fun, intellectual exercise, and I will be interested to see if my number is close to what is actually correct.

Lastly, it is not likely I would play an equal opponent for $100.00 in the first place. If you see me playing someone for $100 you can be pretty sure I am the better player, in which case I would only offer $1.50.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.