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Crawford Rule favors the trailer ATS

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Friday, 21 December 2012, at 12:24 p.m.

In Response To: Crawford Rule Brainteaser (Joe Russell)

Actually, I had the trailer winning ~2.7% more WITH the Crawford rule in effect. My calculations were far from exact, but I believe they are reasonable. The trailer should pay up to $5.40 to keep the Crawford rule. The reason the Crawford rule favors the trailer is the amount of increase in winning chances after winning 2-points, his most common result. His winning chances are 16.46% greater with the Crawford rule in effect.

Messages In This Thread

• Crawford Rule Brainteaser
  AP -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 4:16 a.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Joe Russell -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 5:04 a.m.
    • Crawford Rule favors the trailer ATS
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 12:24 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 5:49 a.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Sam Pottle -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 6:15 a.m.
      • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
        Bill -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 3:04 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Sam Pottle -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 6:24 a.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 4:17 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    AP -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 7:08 p.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 8:54 p.m.
      • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 1:03 a.m.
        • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            AP -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 11:34 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 6:54 p.m.
              • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
                AP -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:19 a.m.
        • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
          Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 5:23 a.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 3:28 p.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 6:50 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:30 p.m.
              • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
                Bob Koca -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:52 p.m.
          • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
            Bob Koca -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 7:02 p.m.
            • Jacoby Rule Brainteaser
              Phil Simborg -- Thursday, 27 December 2012, at 4:27 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 21 December 2012, at 10:15 p.m.
    • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
      Joe Russell -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 8:57 a.m.
      • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 5:45 p.m.
        • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- one final qualitative concern
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 5:52 p.m.
          • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 9:23 p.m.
            • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
              Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 10:28 p.m.
              • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
                Sam Pottle -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 12:58 a.m.
                • Crawford Rule Brainteaser -- final qualitative concern (& contention)
                  Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 10:09 a.m.
            • continuous model bias
              AP -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:35 a.m.
              • continuous model bias
                Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 26 December 2012, at 6:26 p.m.
        • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
          Joe Russell -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 7:05 p.m.
          • Crawford Rule Brainteaser
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 25 December 2012, at 9:12 p.m.
  • What about Beavers in Matches at certain scores?
    Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 2:32 p.m.
    • What about Beavers in Matches at certain scores?
      Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 22 December 2012, at 10:44 p.m.
    • Suggestion
      AP -- Sunday, 23 December 2012, at 11:55 p.m.
  • Crawford Rule Brainteaser - Rollout
    eXtreme Gammon -- Monday, 24 December 2012, at 5:43 p.m.